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iPredict Daily Update

iPredict Ltd



Sunday 14 September 2014




Initial allegations made by journalist Glenn Greenwald yesterday appear to have dented National’s chances of leading the next Government, according to the combined wisdom of the 8000+ registered traders on New Zealand’s predictions market, iPredict, and weakened Prime Minister John Key’s chances of remaining leader of his party through to the end of next year. National, however, remains favoured to lead the next government, with the main change in the forecast Parliament over the last 24 hours being Labour losing forecast seats to the Greens and Internet-Mana. Four Maori electorates remain marginal while Palmerston North is back to being 50:50 between National and Labour. Labour has made ground in Te Atatu. While Mr Key’s overall probability of remaining leader of the National Party remains strong, Steven Joyce is back as favourite to be the next leader should a vacancy arise. David Cunliffe’s chances of remaining Labour leader until the end of the year continue to be dicey, and Grant Robertson has strengthened his position as favourite to succeed him.

Detailed Information:

• Expected turnout 80.0% (steady compared with yesterday)

• National expected to lead next government with 80.2% probability (down from 82.3% yesterday)

• 29% probability that evidence will emerge publicly, before 1 January 2015, contradicting John Key's statement that he first knew Kim Dotcom's name the day before the police raid on Mr Dotcom's mansion (steady compared with yesterday)

• Forecast party vote shares (major and minor parties, adjusted to sum to 100%):

o National: 44.2% (up from 43.9% yesterday)

o Labour: 25.1% (down from 27.2%)

o Green: 14.1% (up from 13.2%)

o NZ First: 6.0% (steady)

o Conservatives: 4.3% (up from 3.9%)

o Internet-Mana: 3.0% (up from 2.6%)

o ACT: 1.8% (up from 1.7%)

o Maori Party: 0.8% (up from 0.7%)

o UnitedFuture: 0.4% (down from 0.6%)

o ALCP: 0.2% (steady)

o Civilian Party: 0.1% (steady)

• Four small parties expected to win at least one electorate seat: ACT (85.8%, down from 86.6% yesterday), UnitedFuture (84.1% probability, steady), Maori Party (80.0%, down from 80.2%), and Mana (73.1%, down from 75%)

Marginal seats:

o Palmerston North (50:50 between National’s Jono Naylor and Labour’s Iain Lees-Galloway compared with 53% for Naylor yesterday)

o Port Hills (53% for National’s Nuk Korako, steady)

o Te Tai Hauauru (64% for Labour’s Adrian Ruawhe, down from 73%)

o Tamaki Makaurau (67% for Labour’s Peeni Henare, steady)

o Christchurch Central (69% for Labour’s Tony Milne, steady)

o Waimakariri (69% for National’s Matthew’s Doocey, up from 65%)

o Te Tai Tokerau (71% for Mana’s Hone Harawira, up from 69%)

o Hutt South (73% for Labour’s Trevor Mallard, down from 75%)

o Te Atatu (79% for Labour’s Phil Twyford, up from 73%)

o Napier (80% for Labour’s Stuart Nash, up from 79%)

o Waiariki (80% for Maori Party’s Te Ururoa Flavell, up from 77%)

• Parliament expected to be:

o National: 55 seats (steady compared with yesterday)

o Labour: 31 seats (down from 34)

o Green: 18 seats (up from 16)

o NZ First: 8 seats (steady)

o Internet-Mana: 4 seats (up from 3)

o ACT: 2 seats (steady)

o Maori Party: 1 seat (steady)

o UnitedFuture: 1 seat (steady)

• National/Act/UnitedFuture/Maori Party would have only 59 seats and could not form a government

• Labour/Green/NZ First/Internet-Mana would have 61 seats and could form a government

• NZ First to hold the balance of power, and expected to back National (61% probability, down from 66% yesterday) or sit on cross benches (4.6%, up from 2.9%)

David Cunliffe expected to depart as Labour leader by end of year (55% probability, steady compared with yesterday) and be replaced by Grant Robertson (55%, up from 52% yesterday)

John Key expected to depart as National leader by end of 2015 (55% probability, compared with a 64% probability of departure by the end of 2016 yesterday). However, if Labour’s probability of forming the next government is subtracted from Mr Key’s probability of departing as National leader by the end of 2015, the probability of him doing so is only 35%

• Steven Joyce back as favourite to become National Party leader if a vacancy arises, with 33% probability (compared with yesterday’s favourite, Paula Bennett, on 34% yesterday)

• Current account deficit (June quarter) expected to be 2.5% of GDP when announced on 17 September (steady compared with yesterday)

• GDP growth (June quarter) expected to be 0.7% when announced on 18 September (down from 0.8%)

• Unemployment expected to be 5.5% in September quarter (steady)

• Annual inflation to end of September quarter expected to be 1.4% (up from 1.3% yesterday)

• No increase in Official Cash Rate expected on 30 October (95% probability, up from 94% yesterday)

• Fiscal deficit for 2014/15 expected to be 0.01% of GDP (down from 0.02% of GDP yesterday)

Notes: iPredict Ltd is owned by Victoria University of Wellington. Details on the company and its stocks can be found at www.ipredict.co.nz. The daily political update is prepared by Exceltium Ltd on a pro bono basis and is based on a snapshot taken at a random time each day. Today’s was taken at 5.33 am. Trading on iPredict to be suspended at 11.59 pm Friday 19 September and re-opened at 7.00 pm on Saturday 20 September


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